The French real estate market is going through a phase that several observatories describe as a recovery. Transaction volumes are stabilizing, prices are changing unevenly across segments, and new housing is experiencing a marked decline. What disparities are measured between old and new, between major metropolitan areas and the rest of the territory, and among buyer profiles?
Old vs. New: The Disparities in Real Estate Market Dynamics in 2026
The old segment and the new segment are not following the same trajectory. The available data outlines two markets with opposing behaviors.
| Indicator | Old | New |
|---|---|---|
| Transaction volume (annual trend) | Stabilization around 950,000 sales | Decrease of about a quarter year-on-year (1st half of 2026) |
| Price evolution | Almost stable at the national level | Downward pressure on unsold programs |
| Negotiation | Negotiation margins have returned to being the norm | Bulk sales experiencing a significant drop |
| Buyer profile in progress | First-time buyers and young households | Individual investors (the only category on the rise) |
The old market is regaining a rhythm close to its long-term average, without returning to euphoria. Notaries in France speak of a gradual equilibrium point, with an overall volume plateauing after several months of moderate recovery.
In Île-de-France, sales are up about 10% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, with 31,750 transactions recorded. This improvement remains fragile: the beginning of the year had marked a slight decline compared to the first quarter of 2025.
To delve deeper into these regional and national dynamics, the Actu Immobilier website in detail gathers analyses and updated data across all segments of the sector.
New Housing in France: Why Sales are Declining
The Federation of Real Estate Developers (FPI) describes the first half of 2026 as one of the worst recorded for new housing. Reservations are sharply declining, with bulk sales (programs sold to institutional landlords) experiencing the most significant drop.
Several factors are compounding:
- Construction costs remain high, which keeps exit prices difficult to align with household purchasing power.
- Interest rates, after a period of relaxation, have stabilized at a level that hinders borrowing capacity, particularly for first-time buyers targeting new properties.
- The withdrawal of institutional investors weighs on large-scale programs, reducing construction starts.
In contrast, individual investors are the only category showing significant growth in new housing. The Jeanbrun scheme, presented as the fiscal successor to Pinel for rental investment, is beginning to produce its first effects by directing part of the demand towards this segment.
Mandatory Collective DPE: What Changes for Condominiums
Since January 1, 2026, the collective DPE is mandatory for all residential buildings. This obligation, long postponed, is changing the landscape of energy renovation and the market reading.
The method for calculating the energy performance diagnosis has also evolved to better value electric heating. The direct consequence: thousands of homes see their energy label improve without any work, simply by recalculation.
Concrete Impact on Prices and Transactions
A property that moves from an F label to a D label thanks to the new calculation regains a market value more in line with the rest of the stock. Properties classified as G remain under pressure, with rental bans continuing to weigh on the rental supply in major cities.
For condominiums, the collective DPE now serves as a foundation for multi-year work plans. Condominium associations must integrate this diagnosis into their renovation strategy, which accelerates decision-making on insulation or the replacement of heating systems.
Interest Rates and Real Estate Prices: The Recovery Remains Conditional
The recovery of the old market does not translate into a uniform rebound in prices. At the national level, the trend is one of near stability. The metropolitan areas show contrasting trajectories.
In Île-de-France, the volume of sales is increasing, but prices are not following at the same pace. Houses show an increase of about 8% in volumes in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to 12% for apartments. This difference reflects a quicker return of buyers to small urban spaces.
Interest rates play a regulatory role. After a decline in 2025, their stabilization at an intermediate level maintains a wait-and-see approach among some potential buyers. The negotiation margins, which have returned to being common, partially offset this brake: sellers are more readily accepting discounts compared to the listed price.
Who is Buying in 2026?
Young buyers continue to support the dynamics of transactions. Their share in acquisitions remains significant, driven by assistance schemes for homeownership and a gradual adjustment of prices in certain tight areas.
Investors, on the other hand, are reorienting. New properties attract a segment of individuals motivated by the tax advantages of the Jeanbrun scheme. The old market is more appealing to those seeking immediate rental yields, particularly in cities like Toulouse where rental demand remains strong.
The French real estate market at the start of the 2026 school year can be understood through these disparities: an old market maintaining its volumes without a price surge, a new market in structural decline despite the return of individual investors, and a regulatory framework (DPE, taxation) that redistributes the cards between segments and territories. The key data to monitor in the coming months remains the level of interest rates, the only factor capable of accelerating or slowing the ongoing normalization.
